Natural Rate

See my published article: The natural rate of interest: An estimate for the United Kingdom, Economic Affairs, 2020. The spreadsheet is here.

For more information on my efforts to estimate the natural rate:

• R* at 2% for the UK in 2023, November 2023

• "Why r* matters" August 2018

• "Special report on natural interest rates" September 2016

• "The interest rate should be almost 3% by now" October 2015

• "The neutral interest rate is currently 1.8%" June 2014

New York Fed estimates here. HLM estimated r* of 1.5% for 2016. For more see here.

See Taylor Rule calculator here.